Tracking political attitudes & opinions in Wales up to the National Assembly Elections on May 5th 2016

What is #Assembly16 & How Does it Work?

Welcome to Assembly16, an independent polling and assembly predictor for the run-up to the May 5th National Assembly for Wales elections. 

Using a combination of historical data, political theory, polls and demographic research on the ground, this site creates a picture of the likely way our Welsh Assembly will look in May next year. Obviously, considering the inaccuracy of polls leading to the General Election of 2015, this cannot be expected to be a perfect predictor, but we hope this will provide a close picture leading up to May 2016. 

Closer to the election, the forecast will become more detailed due to increased polls, however independent national polls conducted by #Assembly16 fortnightly across Wales sets this site apart from others. 

With the political climate undergoing changes not witnessed for decades, and with smaller parties gathering support like never before, we felt it only right to offer an impartial view, away from polls attached to any particular newspaper, company or individual. Our polls are conducted using a randomized address generator using all postcodes across Wales. This results in a truly impartial view from across the whole nation. However, you will also find polls from other organisations on this site on the Polls & Vote Share page. 

Of particular interest is the D'Hondt system used by The National Assembly for Wales elections which yields very different results to The United Kingdom General Election and could result in smaller parties attaining increased seat share in the assembly.