Tracking political attitudes & opinions in Wales up to the National Assembly Elections on May 5th 2016

Constituencies of Interest

Swansea West - Seen as a Labour/Liberal ultra-marginal before the general election, Labour has now returned this seat to their control. However, with a strong campaign from Plaid Cymru, UKIP and the Greens, large dents could be made in Julie James AM's majority come May 2016. #Assembly16 will be conducting a constituency poll here in early September to gauge attitudes. Plaid Cymru have selected a strong candidate in local GP, Dai Lloyd who has actually served on the assembly previously. Realistically however, the only party which has come close to winning this seat are the Conservatives, although many admit that they appear to have peaked in their potential due to the demographic make-up of the modern-suburban constituency that incorporates Swansea City Centre and both university campuses. It is this factor that may lead Green candidate Ashley Wakeling, who contested the constituency in May 2015 (and was the first Welsh Green to cross the 5% vote threshold at a general election) to believe the party has a chance to make a large dent in Labour's majority. UKIP, The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are yet to announce a candidate. 

CURRENT PREDICTION: LAB (40), CON (19), PLC (14), UKIP (10), GRE (9), LIB (8)

Cardiff Central, Ceredigion & Cardiff West to be uploaded soon with predictions.