Tracking political attitudes & opinions in Wales up to the National Assembly Elections on May 5th 2016

Our Assembly

Currently, the assembly features just 4 parties, the Labour party hold 30 (exactly half) of the seats and are the governing party. The Conservatives hold 14 seats, Plaid Cymru hold 11, and the Liberal Democrats; 5. 

The Assembly therefore features 60 seats, 40 of which are elected through constituency First Past The Post (FPTP) ballot. The remaining 20 seats are appointed by the 'Top-Up List' System using a D'Hondt Proportional Representation System. More information can be found on the specifics here.

Main Parties, Leadership & 2016 Contest

Welsh Labour - Led in the Assembly by Carwyn Jones whom has been the leader of Welsh Labour and the First Minister for Wales since 2009. He replaced the retiring Rhodri Morgan and represents the constituency of Bridgend. Welsh Labour have held the most seats in every single parliament since the creation of the Assembly in 1999. However, in 2016, due to the rise of smaller parties and increasing unpopularity of the party across the UK, this could change. 

Welsh Conservatives - Led in the assembly by Andrew R.T. Davies since 2011. He is a regional Assembly Member for South Wales Central. The Conservatives are looking to increase their vote share across Wales after the best result at a general election in Wales for 30 years. However, they also have to defend their position from an increasingly popular UKIP in Wales and justify what is being demonstrated as an increasingly unfriendly government in Westminster against those from a lower-income background, a demographic which dominates Wales. 

Plaid Cymru - Led in the assembly by Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru have typically been disappointed by their electoral performance in the Assembly, being blocked out by Labour in many seats that they target. Asides from this however, Leanne Wood is the first female, first non-Welsh speaking and first South Walean to lead Plaid Cymru and has done since 2012. She represents the South Wales Central Region. Hoping to build upon the nationalist successes of the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru believe they can win over 20 seats in 2016. 

Welsh Liberal Democrats - Led in the Assembly by Kirsty Williams who became leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats in 2008. She represents the constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. The Welsh Liberal Democrats are facing a lot of work for the campaign building to May 2016 after near wipe-out in Wales at the General Election in 2015. Their vote-share dropped as low as many can ever remember it and their seat share in Wales dropped to just one.

Not Elected in the National Assembly for Wales

UKIP - The only party not to have a separate devolved party in Wales and led by Nathan Gill MEP who represents Wales in the European Parliament. UKIP hope to make headway in Wales after a good vote-share in May 2015 across the 40 constituencies. Currently UKIP are forecast to win just 4 list-seats and do not have widespread enough support to gain a constituency unlike the four preceeding parties. 

Wales Green Party - Led by Pippa Bartolotti since 2011, Wales Green Party do not hold elected office asides from at community council level. They celebrated its best results in a general election in history in 2015 following what was coined the #GreenSurge. Unlike ever before, the party held three deposits, in; Cardiff Central, Ceredigion and Swansea West. As such, and much alike to UKIP, they are extremely unlikely to win a constituency seat. However, they have a chance to win list seats in Mid & West Wales, South Wales Central and South Wales West.